On Nov. 3, voters decided three kinds of transit asks: Fresno County voters rejected Measure S, a renewal of the county’s transportation tax (46% yes); Bay Area voters backed RTM and Prop H to rescue BART, Muni and Caltrain (61.5% and 72.5%); and Front Range voters approved 7A to build the Colorado Connector rail line. All results are early and unofficial, and it’s too soon to draw firm lessons, but each race raises questions worth watching as counts are certified.

BLUF: Voters in Fresno County did not approve Measure S, a half-cent sales tax for 30 years, which would have replaced the expiring Measure C. This tax would fund road repairs countywide as well as transit, bike lanes, and pedestrian projects.

Getting Measure S onto the ballot was a campaign of its own. In 2022, a renewal won 58.2% of the vote and still lost, because it needed two-thirds of the vote to pass. When the Fresno Council of Governments (Fresno COG) declined to try again, supporters turned it into a citizen initiative, which switched up the electoral calculus because that strategy only needed a simple majority. The county then sued to stall it and a judge ruled that Measure S could stay on the ballot (Judge Skiles found the state law that put it there ‘valid and enforceable‘).

Supporters framed Measure S as a renewal, not a new tax. They also built a coalition that spanned the left and right, from current and former Republican elected officials to progressive groups to labor unions like the California Nurses Association. Despite the framing, opponents like Supervisor Bredefeld still called it a “scam”. Voters also had a second sales tax in front of them: the City of Fresno’s Measure D, a half-cent general-fund tax written to take effect only if S failed.

On Tuesday, S lost, 46% yes to 53% no, in early results. That’s about 12 points below the 2022 renewal effort, on a measure that needed far less to pass. Measure D passed with 57.68% (38,582 to 28,309). The city now has new money of its own, and the county is still without a replacement for Measure C.

BLUF: Bay Area voters approved Measure RTM, a 14-year sales tax to keep BART, Muni, Caltrain, and other transit systems running. San Francisco voters also approved Prop H, which is a parcel tax that raises about $184 million a year for 15 years for Muni.

This one is a bit nuanced. RTM is a half-cent tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties and a full cent in San Francisco. The agencies spelled out what would happen if both measures failed: BART would close up to 15 stations and end service at 9 pm; Caltrain would close a third of its stations and end weekend service; and Muni would cut up to 20 routes and its cable cars. The open question was Contra Costa County, where voters rejected a countywide sales tax, Measure B, just five months earlier (43% yes). However, voters in Contra Costa still supported the RTM by 56%/44% (page 27 of 30).

Because this was a rescue and not an expansion, supporters used loss aversion to build support. The Connect Bay Area coalition brought together business groups like the Bay Area Council, labor unions, environmental and transit justice advocates, and the agencies themselves. By the campaign’s own count, it gathered 305,000 signatures, sent 2.5 million texts and held 1,100 events.

Opponents attacked the premise. Among others, Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, stressed the need for more reforms before more money and called the promised reforms “toothless and minuscule”.

At the time of this posting, Bay Area voters appear to have staved off cuts by approving the RTM (with 61.9%) and Prop H (with 72.5%). Under SB 63 (the state law that authorized RTM), the agencies are required to conduct a financial efficiency review to find savings and the tax money starts flowing in 2027.

BLUF: Front Range voters may have approved Ballot Issue 7A, a 0.333% sales tax to build the Colorado Connector (CoCo), a passenger train from Fort Collins to Pueblo. The tax would raise nearly $300 million a year, mostly for the southern leg from Denver to Pueblo.

Unlike Fresno or the Bay Area, the CoCo vote was to build something new. The first phase is already paid for: three daily round trips that are funded with $332 million from RTD and the state’s Colorado Transportation Investment Office. Voters in 29 municipalities and seven metropolitan districts along the existing tracks determined if a southerly route expansion could proceed.

As is common, state law barred the Front Range Passenger Rail District (the sponsor) from spending public money to promote the measure, so the Yes on 7A campaign conducted the promotion. Supporters framed the train as highway congestion relief along I-25.

Even the project name was a small ownership tactic, chosen by a public vote. Opponents went after cost and ridership. The opposition statement in the ballot booklet argued voters were being asked to approve a tax and substantial debt before costs, fares, schedules, and railroad agreements were settled.

By Wednesday, the district declared victory on 7A; the measure was leading by over 90,000 votes. Arapahoe County voters opposed it, 41,757 to 36,036, narrowing the overall margin to about 10 points.

While this isn’t enough to rewrite the rules about framing or coalition building, the results do raise questions worth following:

The next few months will help answer them: final certified counts, the efficiency reviews SB 63 requires of Bay Area agencies, and Colorado’s negotiations with BNSF.

This is the goal of Running for the Bus. If proponents of more and better transportation options want to continue winning in an increasingly politicized and fractured electoral environment, they need to better equip themselves with information, networks, and strategies. Be it voting for ballot measures or referenda, or electing officials willing to lead on these issues, Running for the Bus intends to support these efforts and the people making them happen.

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